NWSL Elo with 4 games to go

With 80% of the season complete, where do things stand in the NWSL? Here’s the table including breakdown by points per match overall, home and away. Spirit, Thorns and Red Stars are 1, 2, 3 overall, home and away. Flash and Reign are separated by 4 points due to differences on the road. Sky Blue is still in the playoff chase, just barely, due to 4th best away record. FCKC is struggling this year overall, though is in the top half of away records.

NWSL table after Aug 28 games

What about Elo?

Spirit and Reign are both putting some distance between themselves and the league. Red Stars and Breakers also heading the right direction. Pride, Sky Blue and FCKC are all sliding.


NWSL Elo 2016 graph through Aug 28

So, what do we expect for the rest of the season?

Of the top 6 teams, the Spirit appear to have the most difficult schedule while the Thorns have the easiest.

Final 4 games for each NWSL team

If the Reign manage to win out, they will likely make the playoffs, but maybe not. They could still finish 5th. Sky Blue could also win out and miss the playoffs. A lot would have to break their way for them to make it in. What’s most likely is that the top 4 now remain so and are the playoff teams. Less certain is their order. My prediction: Spirit win Shield and host the Red Stars. Thorns host the Flash in the other semi-final. Far less likely, but also possible, Thorns win Shield and host the Reign. Spirit host Red Stars of Flash (future cloudy, check back later).

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