Better Know a Ref

Better know a ref: Juan Guzman part 2

Juan Guzman Jr. initially made me delighted to be having a new referee so late in the season, but I was disappointed to realize that he had already reffed a PTFC game this year. Forgive my failing neural synaptic connections, but it was long ago, the 12th of April, and what seems like eons ago. You can read all about this fine upstanding gentleman who will no doubt call a fair game on Saturday in Houston right here.


There is still lots to be excited about! Well for one, I completely forgot about him so it’s sorta like a new-to-me used car. On top of that, the stats measures and infographics (ok they’re like 4th grade infographics) have improved significantly since April!

Since taking the whistle in MLS, way back in 2011, he’s had 75 games to shine (well 74.5 since Alan  Kelly broke his foot in the middle of a match once).  He’s taken that opportunity to be extremely average, and that’s fantastic! His 25.4 foul, 3.5 yellow, 0.3 red, and 0.2 pen game stack up against the PRO pool almost perfectly at 25.4, 3.4, and 0.27 foul/yellow/red rates. It’s worth noting that he hands out reds more than pens by about 50%, which is unusual in MLS. Typically refs either issue them about the same rate, or pens about twice as much as reds… we’ll say he’s in the “about the same” category.


That’s just beginners stuff, let’s take a look at where he fits in our super sexy foul/yellow card ratio graph. Wow! Such average. Many consistent. Great signature too, just like a 4th grader… theme of the day apparently. Juan Guzman, super average.


I’m feeling frisky today, so let’s take a look at some of those histograms we all love so much.


That sure is looking pretty average. Nice big cluster of 21 to 31 foul games, minimal outliers, super consistent.


Yellow card distribution for Juan Guzman… Wowsian (wow that’s Gaussian), well, more sort of lorentzian since there’s a limit on one side… but you get my drift. It’s pretty consistent. Last year he showed quite a bit of restraint, landing in the bottom third in terms of both 4+ cards per game, and total cards given.


Did I mention he gives out his first card of the game at minute 34? Guess what the PRO pool average is for the first card of the match? Got a number in your head? If you guessed 34, you are correct. Because, well, Juan Guzman Jr. is fantastically average.



Reds? Sometimes it’s 1, sometimes it’s 2, never been 3 or more. Penalties it’s even more consistent, he’s never given out more than 1 pen in a game!

Well how does Juan Guzman stack up against the distribution of the others in the PRO Pool? I’ll give you one guess. Just like Joe Bauers, he’s the peak of the bell curve, and in a land of idiots that’s a pretty great spot to be.


Good luck to the Green and Gold in Houston tomorrow in search of the golden goose that is the elusive road win.

Get that Goose, man!

Man, I could really go for a Starbucks, y'know?

Today I step into the shoes of a great man, a man by the name of Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho.

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