NWSL

NWSL Elo 2017 Mid-Season Check-In

The above graph shows week by week NWSL Elo going back to the establishment of the league. For details of how it works, click the link. There’s too much data in this graph to really see much meaningful, except how strong Seattle was in 2014 and 2015, how terrible Boston was in 2015 and worse in 2016, and how much parity there is now.

I wasn’t sure about that parity statement, so I changed and graphs a bit to simply what we’re seeing, showing only start, middle and end of each season (except this one, since we’re only midway through now). Here’s how that looks:

As a reminder, at the end of each season, we take all the ratings and regress them toward the mean (leave them in the same order, but squish them together) which has the effect of discounting previous seasons more the further back they are.

Anyway, what do we see now looking across all 5 seasons? Other than 2014 Seattle’s great first half and 2016 Boston’s terrible 1st half, parity isn’t much different between any of the 5 seasons’ first halves.

And for this year in isolation?

Seattle and Chicago up. Courage and Thorns rounding out top 4. Sky Blue, Spirit and FCKC clustered as the next tier (two down and one up). Orlando and Breakers essentially flat (which means better than last year due to regression toward mean), Dash sliding. Should be a fun 2nd half of 2017!

Here are the odds for week 12:

  • BOS 41% CHI 59%
  • WAS 62 ORL 38
  • NC 55 SEA 45
  • NJ 61 KC 39
  • HOU 48 POR 52

@TedSarvata

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