NWSL Elo rates teams over time, taking into account home field advantage, strength of schedule, quality of wins (2-0 is better than 1-0, natch), etc. As you can see from the all-time graph, the Thorns and Courage both currently have their best Elo ever, while falling quite a bit short of the best teams in NWSL history (Seattle in 2014 and 2015 and then FCKC in 2015 by the strength of their playoff games. Boston is still at the bottom, though quite a bit better than last year.
Zooming in to the 2017 season, Thorns and Courage seem to be pulling away from the pack. Reign, Pride and Red Stars are in a group (same teams fighting for the 2 remaining playoff spots), FCKC is solidly in the middle (1500 is where all teams started and where they are now) with Spirit, Sky Blue and Dash trying to maintain their dignity quite a bit better than the aforementioned bottom Breakers.
Here are the odds given to us by the Elo formula for this weekend’s games:
Pride 52% – Thorns 48%
Spirit 69% – Breakers 31%
Dash 45% – Red Stars 55%
Sky Blue 40% – Courage 60%
Reign 64% – FCKC 36%