NWSL Elo uses math to rate teams using all data back to the founding of the league.
Here’s where we stand so far after week 5 of the 2017 season.
Even though the Flash won the trophy last season, it was on penalty kicks and thus counted as a draw, leaving them in 4th place finishing last season and thus starting there this season (as the Courage). 4 wins to open the season saw them rocket to the top, only to drop back just shy of Seattle with the loss last week. The Breakers, on the other hand are playing like a new team, though Elo hasn’t caught up and they’re still on bottom. My takeaway from this is that historically strong teams are more likely to be strong now regardless of current results, inverse for historically weak teams. Boston looks good now, but we’re going to need more data for Elo to reflect that. Seattle didn’t even make playoffs last year, but as so historically strong as to have the top Elo at season’s end.
So, is does this math mean anything? I don’t know. Here are the odds for this week’s games:
- BOS 45% POR 55%
- NJ 63% HOU 37%
- WAS 59% KC 41%
- NC 64% CHI 36%
- SEA 69% ORL 31%